UFC 305 predictions — Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya: Battle card, odds, preview, prelims, knowledgeable picks

Israel Adesanya goals to turn out to be a three-time middleweight champion at UFC 305 when he takes on present champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” can be making the primary protection of the title he gained in opposition to Sean Strickland in his most up-to-date combat whereas Adesanya is seeking to rebound from shedding the belt to Strickland in a stunning upset at UFC 293.

UFC 293 was speculated to function Adesanya defending the belt in opposition to du Plessis, however du Plessis was not able to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months prior. That opened the door for Strickland to upend issues at 185 kilos.

Now, Adesanya and du Plessis face off after a rivalry that has featured some sadly ugly moments during which the 2 fighters, each African-born, have exchanged phrases over which is the “actual African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria earlier than his household moved to New Zealand whereas du Plessis is South African-born and nonetheless fights in a foreign country.

The co-main occasion sees former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg taking over former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what could possibly be probably the most high-action combat on the cardboard.

With a lot taking place on Saturday evening, let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the complete combat card with the newest odds earlier than we get to our workers predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 combat card, odds

• Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, middleweight title
• Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, flyweights
• Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, lightweights
• Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, heavyweights
• Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, welterweights
• Junior Tafa -130 vs. Valter Walker +110, heavyweights
• Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, featherweights
• Terez Bleda -150 vs. Casey O’Neill +125, ladies’s flyweights
• Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, featherweights
• Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, lightweights
• Tune Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweights
• Stewart Nicoll -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweights

With such an enormous primary occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the principle card. Listed below are your choose makers: Brent Brookhouse (Fight sports activities author), Brian Campbell (Fight sports activities author), Shakiel Mahjouri (author), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Sensible (senior editor).

UFC 305 picks, predictions

du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya proves unable to harm du Plessis and actively pressure him to disengage, this could possibly be a tough evening for the previous champion. Not solely is Adesanya coping with the calls for of age and an 11-month layoff that’s the longest of his UFC profession, he should take care of the psychological toll of getting misplaced two of his final three fights (which left many questioning him getting this title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and broadly outpointed by Sean Strickland after being dropped within the opening spherical. Contemplating du Plessis, a small betting underdog, also can carry the combat to the bottom through the use of his large construct as a huge middleweight, there are sufficient causes to consider that Adesanya’s window is closing quick in his bid to turn out to be the UFC’s first three-time middleweight king. And all indicators have pointed in recent times to proper now being DDP’s time. 

Brookhouse: It is completely affordable to suppose Adesanya ought to win, and probably win simply. Have been this the Adesanya of some years in the past, I would contemplate that one thing of a lock, whereas anticipating the combat to look much like Adesanya’s humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a heavy-handed pressure-based fighter, although du Plessis applies his aggression a bit extra successfully. Nevertheless it’s exhausting to shake the picture of Adesanya trying like a person who could not determine the right way to pull the set off in opposition to Sean Strickland his final outing. Time catches up particularly exhausting to preternaturally gifted strikers and that would have been the combat the place Adesanya went by way of a change much like that of late-career Roy Jones Jr. Till I am given motive to consider that was a one-off displaying and never the brand new regular for Adesanya, I lean towards du Plessis placing a lot stress that he simply brute forces his technique to a profitable title protection.

Erceg vs. Kara-France

Campbell: In his final combat, Erceg got here as shut as one may come to capturing the UFC’s flyweight title solely to lose the five-round affair — in simply his fourth UFC look — after making a late strategic error. The native of Perth returns simply three months later to combat New Zealand’s Kara-France, who occurs to be driving a two-fight shedding skid. However at 31, and realizing {that a} third straight defeat could be disastrous in the direction of his title hopes, do not depend out the slight underdog’s possibilities of getting again into true title rivalry. Keep in mind, Kara-France was seemingly on his technique to defeating former champion Brandon Moreno two fights in the past of their interim title combat in 2022 solely to be stopped in Spherical 3 by a brutal physique kick (that was adopted up by split-decision loss to rising contender Amir Albazi). Kara-France has 3 times the UFC expertise of Erceg and must be motivated to aggressively search a end to be able to hold issues out of the judges’ fingers. 

Mahjouri: This combat looks like two flyweight contenders trending in reverse instructions. Erceg opened many eyes with a spirited loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title combat that got here earlier than anybody anticipated. I anticipate he is discovered useful classes that can profit him in opposition to the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical placing and robust submission sport must be sufficient to overwhelm Kara-France, who’s suspectable of shedding by KO, submission or choice. Kara-France’s energy is at all times a menace however Erceg’s too sensible to get caught slacking. Give me Erceg by choice.