• Josh Allen is the top option in Round 3: Anyone picking a quarterback at the end of Round 2 last season was happy with their selection, and they will be even happier this year landing one in Round 3.
• Pick two running backs early: Anyone with these picks can find multiple running backs in the early rounds and still be fine at wide receiver with later picks.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking first, second or third.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Tuesday, August 13
Round 1, Picks 1-3: Draft a wide receiver or Christian McCaffrey
Anyone with the top overall pick should take McCaffrey with little hesitation. He scored over 100 more PPR points than any other running back last season and has the perfect combination of talent, opportunity and situation. Anyone missing out needs to pivot to a wide receiver. No quarterback or tight end is worth a first-round pick this year, and every other running back is more than a gamble.
For the rest of the article, we’ll assume a wide receiver is picked here, but anyone lucky enough to add McCaffrey should pivot to wide receiver in Round 4.
Top Target: CeeDee Lamb (Player Profile)
Lamb noticeably improved each season and is now at the top of the position. He finished 2023 as the top wide receiver and has less competition for targets this season after Tony Pollard‘s and Michael Gallup‘s departure. The only notable addition is sixth-round receiver Ryan Flournoy, which will have no impact on Lamb’s target share.
In contrast, Justin Jefferson has a new quarterback, Ja’Marr Chase’s quarterback is coming back from injury and Tyreek Hill is 30 years old, adding a little risk to each of their profiles.
Possible Targets: Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill
Round 2, Picks 22-24: Draft a running back
In the past, this was the prime pick for a quarterback, but Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts‘ ADPs have fallen to a point where running back or wide receiver can be the focus. For the most part, running backs provide the most value here, as all of the wide receivers that are proven or have the most upside will be off the table.
Top Target: Isiah Pacheco (Player Profile)
Pacheco’s biggest reason for optimism is the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t re-sign 32-year-old running back Jerick McKinnon, who had been the Chiefs’ primary third down and two-minute drill back for the last two seasons. He was also a primary backup on early downs, particularly near the goal line. Those goal-line plays helped McKinnon to 13 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire should get the majority of this work, this should give Pacheco a chance to improve on his RB15 season from a year ago.
Possible Targets: De’Von Achane, James Cook, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones
Round 3, Picks 25-27: Draft a quarterback
A quarterback is the ideal pick at the start of Round 3. These perfect draft articles constantly mentioned Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the end of Round 2 last season, and they ended up finishing first and second in fantasy points at the position. Both quarterbacks have changed this offseason, but their talent and rushing production still leave them squarely at the top.
In contrast, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith were the other options to end Round 2 last season. All three were worthy of being fantasy starters, but none finished in the top 15 as their draft status implied. This year the other options are a top tight end, or other running backs and wide receivers who are likely fantasy starters but more of a gamble.
Top Target: Josh Allen
Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last four seasons. He’s the third-highest-graded passer and has the third-most rushing attempts in that time. He is the only quarterback who is elite at passing and rushing while running a lot. There is an obvious risk with the Stefon Diggs loss, but the Buffalo Bills general recharge means they will need to depend more heavily on Allen, which should allow his fantasy production to remain high.
Possible Targets: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow
Round 4, Picks 46-48: Draft a running back or wide receiver
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. In particular, Joe Mixon’s ADP has fallen just enough over the past month, in part due to injury, but he has substantial upside. There are a few other clear top running back options here if Mixon is not available. This is also a fine time to pick a wide receiver if Christian McCaffrey was picked first overall.
Top Target: Joe Mixon (Player Profile)
Mixon has been a consistent top-12 fantasy running back in both total rank and points per game. Although he enters a new environment in 2024, he will again play in a high-scoring offense as the Houston Texans‘ clear lead running back. While he’s never been the most explosive running back, it’s fair to think he will finish in the top 12 yet again. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik recently said Mixon is “an absolute workhorse, in every regard.” The offenses Slowik has been part of generally run the ball more than average, which should continue to be true with Mixon.
Possible Targets: Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, Aaron Jones, Amari Cooper, Kenneth Walker III
Round 5, Picks 49-51: Draft a tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts’ utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of offensive snaps in only two games, with a median of 64%. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts’ role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive playcaller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers
Round 6, Picks 70-72: Draft a wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injuries and you can draft more running backs and wide receivers, allowing you to make lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Keenan Allen (Player Profile)
The fact that the quarterback, all three wide receivers and the offensive playcaller are all working with each other for the first time adds a lot more uncertainty to Allen’s season. He will certainly decline this season from fewer routes run and a lower target percentage. Luckily if the first preseason game is any indication, he should be on the field just as much as he was with the Los Angeles Chargers, just with a potential target share decline.
It’s not fun drafting a player where we’re confident his total numbers will decline, but his ADP is WR32, making him a solid gamble.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown
Round 7, Picks 73-75: Draft a wide receiver
A month ago, this was a good time to add another running back, but the better running back options from that time are no longer available here, and there are too many good wide receivers still available. The fact that clear good starting running backs are no longer on the board at this point is a big reason why it’s good to pick two early.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of snaps from Weeks 14 to 17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL’s best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Hollywood Brown, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Round 8, Picks 94-96: Draft a running back
This is a spot to pick a running back part of a committee. The vast majority of the backs available here fit that description, but if Devin Singletary is still available here, it’s best to pick him up, as he’s the rare lead running back that falls in drafts. While running back is a strength of this team, the running backs in this tier fly off the board quickly, and the quality of running back won’t be nearly the same by Round 10.
Top Target: Devin Singletary (Player Profile)
Singletary has consistently graded well as a runner, finishing with a 73.0-plus PFF rushing grade every season and at least a 78.0 mark in each of the past three seasons. He joins the New York Giants this season and should be the featured running back. Typically, feature backs are picked much higher, but he will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines and has never graded well as a receiver. It’s also possible that he won’t play on third downs. That should prevent him from getting picked in the first half of drafts, but he can be a steal in the second half.
Possible Targets: Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr., Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Chase Brown
Round 9, Picks 97-99: Draft a wide receiver or running back
Wide receiver is the best option here, but there is still an important decision to make. You can draft a proven veteran or one of the younger wide receivers in the league. Tyler Lockett or Courtland Sutton should beat their ADPs if they stay healthy and can be fantasy starters, but they are unlikely to finish among the top 24 without some touchdown luck. The younger wide receivers are less likely to beat their ADP, but they have a higher chance of being an elite wide receiver this season. The right decision likely depends on how risky the previous wide receivers picked have been. There are some running back options here, particularly if you went wide receiver heavy early and haven’t picked a primary backup until now.
Top Target: Courtland Sutton (Player Profile)
Sutton has finished over 60% of his games as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver each of the last two seasons but has rarely finished among the top 12. Sutton is the clear top wide receiver on the Denver Broncos‘ depth chart after they traded away his main competition Jerry Jeudy. If Sutton reports to training camp despite his contract situation or if he receives a new contract, he’s a perfect complementary piece to a team drafting many wide receivers.
Possible Targets: Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Tyjae Spears, Austin Ekeler, Brian Thomas Jr.
Round 10, Picks 118-120: Draft a running back or wide receiver
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Jerome Ford
Last season, Ford was the Browns primary running back with Nick Chubb out for the year. He finished at RB16 with a top-24 finish in 12 weeks. Chubb will potentially return this season, but it’s unclear when he will be back and to what extent he will be able to play. Ford was often splitting time with Kareem Hunt last season and will likely split with D’Onta Foreman for part of the season and Chubb the other part. While that split might not leave Ford as a top-10 running back anytime soon, several more weeks in the top 24 is a clear possibility.
Possible Targets: Jakobi Meyers, Brandin Cooks, Zach Charbonnet, Curtis Samuel, Romeo Doubs
Round 11, Picks 121-123: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams, and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Zach Charbonnet, Romeo Doubs, Chuba Hubbard, Mike Williams
Round 12, Picks 142-144: Draft a wide receiver or running back
Top Target: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle hasn’t been given many opportunities in the NFL with less than 100 rushing attempts in his four-year NFL career. The only reason he’s worth considering is because of the Cowboys backfield. Given Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons‘ contract situations, the Cowboys’ only noteworthy investment at running back was bringing back Ezekiel Elliott. The future Cowboys Ring of Honor member already has over 2,000 career rushing attempts, ranking in the top 40 all-time. Unless Dallas brings in another running back or someone lower on the depth chart breaks out in training camp, Dowdle will have significant volume at some point this season. In fantasy football, volume is more important than talent.
Possible Targets: Gabe Davis, Antonio Gibson, Ty Chandler, Jaleel McLaughlin, Adam Thielen
Round 13, Picks 145-147: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Gabe Davis
Davis spent most of his time in Buffalo as a deep threat who caught a lot of touchdowns but didn’t have a high catch rate. In Jacksonville, he should see more of a complete route tree and see a higher target share. In the first preseason game, he took 100% of snaps with the first-team offense. Calvin Ridley finished as WR17 last season as the top outside receiver in Jacksonville and either Davis or Brian Thomas Jr. could earn that role this season.
Possible Targets: Adam Thielen, Dontayvion Wicks, Jahan Dotson, Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
