The betting lines and expert consensus for UFC 324 have begun to crystallize, and the outlook for Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett is increasingly steep. Despite his meteoric rise and polarizing popularity, analysts and veteran fighters are overwhelmingly siding with Justin Gaethje ahead of their high-stakes lightweight clash. The matchup, recently finalized for the upcoming pay-per-view card, is being framed as the ultimate litmus test for the Liverpudlian’s championship aspirations.
Gaethje remains one of the most feared out-fighters in the history of the 155-pound division. Known for his devastating leg kicks and a chin that seems forged from granite, the former interim champion represents a level of technical violence that Pimblett has yet to encounter in the Octagon. While Pimblett has silenced some doubters with his recent win streak, the jump in competition from mid-tier contenders to a perennial top-five mainstay like Gaethje is a chasm that many experts believe he isn’t ready to cross.
The technical hurdle for Pimblett
The primary concern among analysts involves Pimblett’s defensive habits. Throughout his UFC tenure, the Scouser has shown a tendency to keep his chin high during exchanges, relying on his athleticism and toughness to weather storms. Against a counter-puncher as precise and powerful as Gaethje, that habit could be catastrophic. Gaethje’s evolution under coach Trevor Wittman has transformed him from a pure brawler into a measured, tactical destroyer who punishes every minor mistake.
And then there is the wrestling factor. Pimblett’s path to victory almost certainly involves taking the fight to the mat, where his opportunistic submission game is at its best. However, Gaethje’s defensive wrestling—rooted in an All-American collegiate background—is notoriously difficult to crack. If Pimblett cannot force the clinch or secure a takedown early, he risks being picked apart at range where Gaethje’s low kicks can compromise his movement by the end of the first round.
Why Gaethje remains the oddsmakers favorite
Beyond the stylistic matchup, the “strength of schedule” plays a massive role in the current narrative. Gaethje has spent years in five-round wars against the likes of Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and Charles Oliveira. He is a proven commodity in deep waters. Pimblett, conversely, has faced criticism regarding the caliber of his opponents, with many suggesting the UFC has protected their biggest British star with favorable matchmaking until now.
But fighting Gaethje isn’t just about skill; it’s about endurance and pain tolerance. “The Highlight” creates a type of physical pressure that often breaks fighters psychologically. If Pimblett can survive the initial onslaught and make it a dirty, grappling-heavy affair, he has a chance. But for the majority of the MMA community, the more likely scenario sees Gaethje’s experience and raw power bringing a premature end to the “Paddy Power” hype train.
What this means for the Lightweight title picture
The implications for the winner are massive. For Gaethje, a dominant win over a superstar like Pimblett reaffirms his status as the division’s gatekeeper to the gold. It puts him right back in the mix for a title shot or a massive “BMF” style superfight. For Pimblett, an upset victory would be the single most significant moment for UK MMA since Michael Bisping knocked out Luke Rockhold.
As the date for UFC 324 approaches, the discourse isn’t just about who wins, but how much damage Pimblett can take before he finds an opening. Most experts aren’t betting on him finding it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Justin Gaethje the betting favorite?
Yes, early market indicators show Gaethje as a significant favorite, largely due to his history against elite competition and his superior striking defense compared to Pimblett.
When is UFC 324 taking place?
The event is scheduled for later this year, with official dates and venue locations expected to be finalized by the promotion shortly, though it remains the primary focus of the mid-year pay-per-view schedule.
What is Paddy Pimblett’s path to winning?
Most analysts agree that Pimblett must avoid a standing trade-off at all costs. His best chance lies in utilizing his high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu to catch Gaethje in a scramble or a submission if the fight hits the floor.
