Fresh off a full week of preseason action, we’ve got ADP movement across the board! We kicked off last week’s risers and fallers with a set of players seeing movement based on training camp hype and injuries.
This week, the majority of movement can be attributed to real football.
The weekend was certainly full of hype but many teams blessed us with key indicators we can directly apply to our fantasy drafts. And, as a result, this week’s risers and fallers list has a theme that is focused on hotly debated players with uncertain positioning on their teams.
Let’s kick things off with a riser and faller combination that I’ve been on pins and needles waiting to talk about — a riser and faller from the same backfield!
FALLER: Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
RISER: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
I’m not joking when I say I’ve been patiently waiting for the moment Pollard falls while Spears rises, specifically for this article.
I’ve spent much of the offseason debating who the Titans’ true RB1 is. Like many fantasy analysts, I’d hoped the exit of Derrick Henry meant Spears could ascend to lead back after a promising showing in 2023.
Instead of leading with Spears and adding a complementary short-yardage back, the Titans added Pollard, a back who profiles very similarly to Spears.
All the offseason debates can finally be put to rest because the Titans were very generous and gave us a sneak peek at the running back usage for this season. Pollard started the game, but Spears played immediately and the splits were fairly even. They were the only backs who played with the starters and were used interchangeably — both used on all downs and in the red zone. Spears got the touchdown.
The touchdown and excitement of snaps with starters are helping to raise Spears’ ADP and Pollard’s ADP is naturally falling. Using two backs across all downs isn’t common practice. But again, Pollard and Spears are extremely similar and that type of usage would work well and allow the Titans to use a hot-hand approach.
Are they rising and falling in my rankings? No … but there’s a valid reason.
Let the record show I ranked Spears aggressively at RB26 before the Week 1 preseason game. My vision for this backfield was that Spears would overtake Pollard and drafting him as a borderline RB2 was justified. The preseason outing doesn’t change how I view Spears. However, Pollard won’t be dropping in my rankings. A 1A/1B backfield was anticipated.
But Pollard looked excellent on Saturday with four carries for 31 yards and a long of 24. If this is a true split backfield of two talented backs, low-end RB2/high-end RB3 is justified for both players and that’s exactly where I have both ranked.
RISER: Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
Ranking the Texans’ receiving corps is one of the great mysteries of 2024. Nico Collins was WR6 in Half-PPR last year and is the highest-ranked Texans’ receiver in Yahoo’s Expert Rankings. The ranking seems like quite the bargain for a player who had a breakout year of nearly 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns.
Dell is currently the lowest-ranked Texans’ receiver but is still being drafted within the first six rounds. That’s not surprising. Dell is the least experienced and played just 11 total games but only nine at full health. Volatility, durability and uncertainty within the Texans’ receiving corps are valid concerns with Dell as the likely WR3. This week’s preseason game confirmed that notion.
The Texans’ starters played just six snaps. Of those snaps, Collins and Stefon Diggs played all six, while Dell only played four. However, Dell caught the single touchdown from C.J. Stroud — a 34-yard bomb. That highlight alone will send Dell’s ADP soaring.
*Fantasy managers should note that Collins also saw a mild boost in ADP and Diggs saw a slight dip.
Is he rising in my rankings? A teeny, tiny bit.
Dell’s upside is undeniable but it’s difficult to push him significantly higher in rankings. There’s a bit of wiggle room in his placement and I can justify potentially moving him ahead of his teammate Diggs. But, it’s tough to move him ahead of high-upside guys who are clear WR1s on their team, even their respective team itself is a bit pitiful.
FALLER: Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Moss was inactive for Week 1’s preseason game, leaving many questioning if his absence was an indicator of his positioning in the depth chart. However, the Bengals clarified Moss was dealing with an illness. We’ll have to wait until Week 2 for clarification on splits between Moss and Chase Brown, but Moss’ dip in ADP is not just a result of a Week 1 absence. Reports out of training camp regarding Brown have been exceedingly glowing, with some beat writers stating that Brown appears to be the Bengals’ RB1.
With Moss absent, Brown was the only Bengals’ running back to play with the starters and played all 13 snaps with Joe Burrow. This is critical because no back rotated in on third down. Moss’ absence makes it tough to evaluate with certainty but at the very least, this would indicate Brown is a trustworthy third-down back for the starters. Moss would be difficult to trust if he’s not a three-down back.
Is he falling in my rankings? Not yet, BUT …
Brown was already ahead of Moss in my rankings because of his potential value through the air. While Joe Mixon had plenty of goal-line opportunities throughout his career as a Bengal, his receiving upside is what truly pushed his value as a top-12 back. I won’t drop Moss in the rankings until I see the actual split of this backfield.
If this is a true committee, Moss will drop in my rankings.
FALLER: Tua Tagovailoa
How do you drop in rankings on your day off?!
Miami sat its starters this weekend, but Tua’s ADP is taking a mild dip. And while Tua doesn’t fit the theme of unclear positions on their teams, his ADP is the most significant drop of any quarterback outside of Justin Herbert, whom we discussed last week. I wanted to include Tua because I anticipate the dip will continue throughout preseason.
Tua is the most natural “leapfrog candidate” quarterback. As rookie quarterbacks continue to surge, he will struggle to maintain his position. Tua has significant upside but has struggled against tough defenses and the stigma should stick with him in 2024. When facing difficult defenses, Tua’s lack of rushing upside makes his floor rather ugly. With rookies like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams and even J.J. McCarthy offering live arms, talented receiving corps and rushing upside, Tua will continue to lack appeal and fall in ADP.
Is he falling in my rankings? YES … hard pass.
While I have the utmost confidence that Tua will light it up in general throughout the season, I want absolutely nothing to do with his playoff schedule: Houston, San Francisco and Cleveland, PLUS Week 14 against the Jets.
Because I know Tua isn’t usable for the long haul, he’ll fall throughout preseason and be displaced by rising quarterbacks.
