Fantasy Football Draft Advice: NFL Preseason Takeaways (Week 1)

“It’s only the preseason.”

Sure, it can be foolish to make sweeping generalizations based on games that mean nothing in the standings. But savvy fantasy football managers know that preseason games often yield helpful clues about what to expect when the real games begin in September.

Here are what I believe to be the most important fantasy football takeaways from the first week of the NFL exhibition season. Let’s go position by position.

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: NFL Preseason Takeaways

Quarterback

Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the first two picks in this year’s NFL Draft, both looked sharp in their professional debuts. Williams completed 4-of-7 for 95 yards and added a 13-yard scramble. Daniels was 2-of-3 for 45 yards and had a 3-yard TD run. Yes, the sample sizes are tiny, but both rookies looked good in limited action. They’re being draft in either low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 range, and neither gave us any reason to tap the brakes. I have Daniels ranked QB11, Williams QB13.

Viking rookie J.J. McCarthy looked sharp, too, completing 11-of-17 passes for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT. But McCarthy is now dealing with some sort of knee injury, and it’s still very possible (if not probable) that Sam Darnold is Minnesota’s Week 1 starter.

There are some people who believe Sam Howell could push Geno Smith for Seattle’s starting QB job at some point this season. I am not among those people. Howell played extensively in Seattle’s first preseason game, completing 16-of-27 passes for 130 yards — which works out to an uninspiring 4.8 yards per attempt. A notorious sack magnet, Howell also took two sacks. Count me out.

Running Back

Time to put a flashing yellow light next to D’Andre Swift‘s name. The Bears’ RB usage in their first exhibition contest was … curious. Swift took the first offensive snap for the Bears, was subbed out for Khalil Herbert on the second, returned later in the series and gained 42 yards on a screen pass, then didn’t play again. Swift played two snaps, and it was Travis Homer who took the first third-down snap of Chicago’s first drive. (It’s worth noting that Homer played for new Bears OC Shane Waldron in Seattle.) Herbert played 14 snaps with the starters. Roschon Johnson has been banged up and didn’t play. I suspect I’ll be moving Swift around in my rankings in the coming weeks. After seeing his strange usage in this game, I dropped him from RB23 to RB28.

Eric Gray had a pair of TD runs in the Giants’ preseason game against the Lions, including a 48-yard, one-cut beauty, but rookie RB Tyrone Tracy took 11 snaps with the starters, while Gray took only two. Tracy is an interesting late-round flyer.

The battle for the Jets’ No. 2 RB role appears to be over already. Rookie Braelon Allen played all seven snaps with QB Tyrod Taylor (who started in place of Aaron Rodgers) and had 54 rushing yards on only six carries. If you’re hell-bent on handcuffing Breece Hall, Allen is your guy.

Wide Receiver

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown had a crash landing after an 11-yard catch, resulting in a sternoclavicular dislocation of his shoulder. Brown didn’t require surgery, but the injury docs seem to think he’ll miss 4-6 weeks. It’s a troublesome development for a player who’s missed eight games over the last two years. I’ve dropped Brown to WR46 in my rankings and have inched up Rashee Rice (WR35) and Xavier Worthy (WR45). Skyy Moore became the Chiefs’ No. 3 receiver in Brown’s absence but should still be considered a fantasy toxin.

Christian Kirk enthusiasts have reason to be worried. When the Jaguars used two-receiver sets early on in their game against the Chiefs, Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. were on the field, with Kirk watching from the sideline. If Kirk only plays in three- and four-WR sets, he’s going to be hard-pressed to return a profit on his WR31 ADP. This is a case where I’m willing to err on the side of overreaction. I’ve dropped Kirk to WR38, and I’ve moved up Thomas a few spots to WR54.

Not a big surprise here, but Rome Odunze only played in three-receiver sets for the Bears. It might take an injury to either D.J. Moore or Keenan Allen for Odunze to become playable in a managed league.

It’s looking more and more as if Keon Coleman will be the most fantasy-relevant receiver in Buffalo. On top of making highlight-reel catches seemingly every day in training camp, Coleman played every snap with Josh Allen, while Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel rotated in two-WR sets. I still want to see more before I move Coleman (WR48), Shakir (WR53) or Samuel (WR54) in my rankings.

Van Jefferson played 15-of-17 snaps with Justin Fields, who started at QB for the Steelers. It looks as if Jefferson is Pittsburgh’s No. 2 receiver, but that might not mean much in OC Arthur Smith’s offense. When Smith was offensive coordinator for the Falcons last year, No. 2 receiver Mack Hollins had 30 targets all year.

Fans of rookie WR Jermaine Burton probably haven’t been pleased with reports that Burton seems to have fallen behind Andrei Iosivas in the battle for the Bengals’ No. 3 receiver role. Iosivas did indeed serve in that role when Joe Burrow was in the game, taking a number of coveted slot snaps. But let’s not count out Burton yet. The rookie entered the game after Burrow was gone but had three catches for 82 yards, including a snazzy 38-yard TD catch down the sideline.

Tight End

One of the things that has me excited about rookie Raiders TE Brock Bowers (aside from his prodigious talent) is that he’s the ultimate chess piece; he can line up anywhere. My concern has been that Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is more of a checkers player than a chess player. But my fears were allayed somewhat in the first preseason game for Las Vegas. Bowers played 11 snaps, variously lining up in-line, in the slot, out wide and in the backfield. I have Bowers ranked TE9, just ahead of Jake Ferguson, and will continue to scoop up the rookie in redraft leagues.

Gerald Everett played more snaps with Caleb Williams (14) than did Cole Kmet (11). A TE timeshare would drain Kmet’s fantasy value. I’ve dropped him to TE20 and have moved up Everett a couple of spots to TE32.

Rookie TE Ben Sinnott had three catches for 57 yards in the Commanders’ preseason opener vs. the Jets. The highlight was a 44-yard catch down the seam on which it took five Jets defenders to finally wrestle Sinnott to the ground. But here’s the bad news: Sinnott played zero snaps with the starters and appears to be behind Zach Ertz and John Bates on the depth chart. It might not be that way for long, however.